{
  "samples": 200,
  "points_per_method": 1400,
  "events": 124,
  "test_scored": false,
  "prompt": "English full prompt; prompt(record, 'full', True); unchanged",
  "reasoning_effort": "low",
  "service_tier": "fast",
  "cli_version": "codex-cli 0.153.4",
  "methods": {
    "luna_full": {
      "model": "gpt-5.6-luna",
      "source": "existing completed run",
      "reasoning_effort": "low",
      "service_tier": "fast",
      "cli_version": "codex-cli 0.153.4",
      "source_run": "runs/polymarket_luna_validation_200"
    },
    "terra_full": {
      "model": "gpt-5.6-terra",
      "reasoning_effort": "low",
      "service_tier": "fast",
      "cli_version": "codex-cli 0.153.4",
      "calls": 200,
      "total_seconds": 1753.3682933516684,
      "mean_seconds": 8.766841466758342,
      "median_seconds": 7.879788934515091,
      "max_seconds": 48.27106951299356,
      "recoverable_reconnect_events": 1,
      "terminal_failure_events": 0,
      "pilot": false
    },
    "sol_full": {
      "model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
      "reasoning_effort": "low",
      "service_tier": "fast",
      "cli_version": "codex-cli 0.153.4",
      "calls": 200,
      "total_seconds": 2262.0178682368132,
      "mean_seconds": 11.310089341184066,
      "median_seconds": 9.349386383488309,
      "max_seconds": 140.52359499799786,
      "recoverable_reconnect_events": 0,
      "terminal_failure_events": 0,
      "pilot": false
    },
    "persistence": {
      "model": null,
      "source": "numerical reference"
    },
    "ridge_price": {
      "model": null,
      "source": "existing trained numerical baseline"
    },
    "ridge_full": {
      "model": null,
      "source": "existing trained numerical baseline"
    }
  },
  "pilot_checks": {
    "terra": {
      "n_points": 35,
      "mse": 0.005494742857142859,
      "rmse": 0.07412653274734263,
      "mae": 0.03897142857142857,
      "persistence_mse": 0.0022246285714285705,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -1.4699596722406327
    },
    "sol": {
      "n_points": 35,
      "mse": 0.0017746571428571428,
      "rmse": 0.04212667970368829,
      "mae": 0.02757142857142857,
      "persistence_mse": 0.0022246285714285705,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.2022681153836271
    }
  },
  "overall": [
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "rmse": 0.08557397802069104,
      "mae": 0.04549,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 8.557397802069104,
      "mae_pp": 4.549,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.007313181425786689,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.008448679623381613
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.007784210549999999,
      "rmse": 0.08822817322148294,
      "mae": 0.04781935714285715,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.06299478017508275,
      "rmse_pp": 8.822817322148294,
      "mae_pp": 4.781935714285715,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.00784020231829574,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.009064238965355496
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.007581055,
      "rmse": 0.08706925404527134,
      "mae": 0.04685642857142858,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.03525230226721088,
      "rmse_pp": 8.706925404527134,
      "mae_pp": 4.685642857142858,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.007637895154553049,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.008689157498079875
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.007660116428571429,
      "rmse": 0.08752209108888698,
      "mae": 0.04601499999999999,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.04604875816274334,
      "rmse_pp": 8.752209108888698,
      "mae_pp": 4.6015,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.007742194374825954,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.008957512077572968
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.007503065953150784,
      "rmse": 0.08662023985853874,
      "mae": 0.04584870032682404,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.024602288475954026,
      "rmse_pp": 8.662023985853875,
      "mae_pp": 4.584870032682404,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.007523897597379099,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.008711880502742284
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "samples": 200,
      "n_points": 1400,
      "mse": 0.0074533601110515465,
      "rmse": 0.08633284491461837,
      "mae": 0.04561793921527297,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007322905714285714,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.01781456731189901,
      "rmse_pp": 8.633284491461838,
      "mae_pp": 4.561793921527297,
      "macro_market_mse": 0.007452967802024164,
      "macro_event_mse": 0.008661614424120981
    }
  ],
  "by_horizon": [
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "rmse": 0.060828981579506995,
      "mae": 0.030154999999999998,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 6.0828981579507,
      "mae_pp": 3.0155
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.003475485,
      "rmse": 0.0589532441855408,
      "mae": 0.033325,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 5.89532441855408,
      "mae_pp": 3.3325
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00551848,
      "rmse": 0.07428647252360285,
      "mae": 0.04046,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 7.4286472523602844,
      "mae_pp": 4.046
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00704931,
      "rmse": 0.08396016912798591,
      "mae": 0.043789999999999996,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 8.396016912798592,
      "mae_pp": 4.379
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.007779505,
      "rmse": 0.08820150225478021,
      "mae": 0.050375,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 8.820150225478022,
      "mae_pp": 5.0375000000000005
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00899435,
      "rmse": 0.09483854701544094,
      "mae": 0.05503,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 9.483854701544093,
      "mae_pp": 5.503
    },
    {
      "method": "persistence",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "rmse": 0.12142094135691751,
      "mae": 0.065295,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0,
      "rmse_pp": 12.142094135691751,
      "mae_pp": 6.5295000000000005
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0037414725000000006,
      "rmse": 0.061167577195766064,
      "mae": 0.031505,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.011163691348899274,
      "rmse_pp": 6.116757719576606,
      "mae_pp": 3.1504999999999996
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0037587366999999997,
      "rmse": 0.06130853692594531,
      "mae": 0.035624,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.08149990576854726,
      "rmse_pp": 6.130853692594531,
      "mae_pp": 3.5624000000000002
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0057551875,
      "rmse": 0.07586295209125465,
      "mae": 0.042598000000000004,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.04289360476073112,
      "rmse_pp": 7.586295209125465,
      "mae_pp": 4.2598
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00730179165,
      "rmse": 0.08545052164849551,
      "mae": 0.0465325,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.035816505445213975,
      "rmse_pp": 8.545052164849551,
      "mae_pp": 4.65325
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.008515904400000001,
      "rmse": 0.09228165798250486,
      "mae": 0.052301,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.09465890181958891,
      "rmse_pp": 9.228165798250485,
      "mae_pp": 5.2301
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.009521231750000001,
      "rmse": 0.09757679924039321,
      "mae": 0.057289500000000014,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.05857919138125611,
      "rmse_pp": 9.757679924039321,
      "mae_pp": 5.728950000000001
    },
    {
      "method": "luna_full",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.01589514935,
      "rmse": 0.12607596658364353,
      "mae": 0.0688855,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.07814561713675827,
      "rmse_pp": 12.607596658364354,
      "mae_pp": 6.88855
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0037220650000000005,
      "rmse": 0.06100872888366058,
      "mae": 0.030525000000000004,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.005918654978899429,
      "rmse_pp": 6.100872888366058,
      "mae_pp": 3.0525
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0035603399999999995,
      "rmse": 0.05966858469915303,
      "mae": 0.03381,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.024415297433307837,
      "rmse_pp": 5.966858469915303,
      "mae_pp": 3.381
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0058127249999999995,
      "rmse": 0.07624122900373524,
      "mae": 0.042595,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.053319935924384776,
      "rmse_pp": 7.624122900373524,
      "mae_pp": 4.2595
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00748259,
      "rmse": 0.08650196529559313,
      "mae": 0.04478,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.061464171670702505,
      "rmse_pp": 8.650196529559313,
      "mae_pp": 4.478
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.008321795,
      "rmse": 0.09122387297193646,
      "mae": 0.052164999999999996,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.0697075199514623,
      "rmse_pp": 9.122387297193645,
      "mae_pp": 5.2165
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.009092485,
      "rmse": 0.09535452270343553,
      "mae": 0.056265,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.01091073840800072,
      "rmse_pp": 9.535452270343553,
      "mae_pp": 5.6265
    },
    {
      "method": "terra_full",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.015075385000000002,
      "rmse": 0.1227818594092792,
      "mae": 0.06785500000000001,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.02254215462273912,
      "rmse_pp": 12.27818594092792,
      "mae_pp": 6.785500000000002
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0035720300000000003,
      "rmse": 0.0597664621673393,
      "mae": 0.0296,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.03462953679092706,
      "rmse_pp": 5.97664621673393,
      "mae_pp": 2.96
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0037034200000000002,
      "rmse": 0.06085573103660821,
      "mae": 0.03447,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.06558365235355645,
      "rmse_pp": 6.085573103660821,
      "mae_pp": 3.447
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0056910400000000005,
      "rmse": 0.07543898196555943,
      "mae": 0.041420000000000005,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.03126948000173968,
      "rmse_pp": 7.543898196555943,
      "mae_pp": 4.142
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00715481,
      "rmse": 0.08458610997084569,
      "mae": 0.04468,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.014966003764907532,
      "rmse_pp": 8.458610997084568,
      "mae_pp": 4.468
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.008386065,
      "rmse": 0.09157546068680189,
      "mae": 0.05104500000000001,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.07796897103350409,
      "rmse_pp": 9.157546068680189,
      "mae_pp": 5.104500000000001
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.009406510000000002,
      "rmse": 0.09698716409917346,
      "mae": 0.054990000000000004,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.045824323047246596,
      "rmse_pp": 9.698716409917346,
      "mae_pp": 5.4990000000000006
    },
    {
      "method": "sol_full",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.01570694,
      "rmse": 0.1253273314165749,
      "mae": 0.0659,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.06537964172258826,
      "rmse_pp": 12.53273314165749,
      "mae_pp": 6.59
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.003802297175568119,
      "rmse": 0.06166276976886555,
      "mae": 0.030562833926218547,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.02760205979141972,
      "rmse_pp": 6.166276976886555,
      "mae_pp": 3.0562833926218547
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0035110471789609955,
      "rmse": 0.05925408997665052,
      "mae": 0.033428934971435564,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.010232292460187642,
      "rmse_pp": 5.925408997665052,
      "mae_pp": 3.3428934971435567
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.005543804933705696,
      "rmse": 0.07445673195692715,
      "mae": 0.04071541708859276,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.004589113978069381,
      "rmse_pp": 7.445673195692715,
      "mae_pp": 4.071541708859276
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.007250344700893391,
      "rmse": 0.08514895595891585,
      "mae": 0.04439709922148504,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.028518351568223244,
      "rmse_pp": 8.514895595891584,
      "mae_pp": 4.439709922148504
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.00802244557569203,
      "rmse": 0.08956810579493144,
      "mae": 0.051017438283052205,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.031228281965501647,
      "rmse_pp": 8.956810579493144,
      "mae_pp": 5.101743828305221
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.009311743626327744,
      "rmse": 0.09649737626654802,
      "mae": 0.0552395678392471,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.035288111573125835,
      "rmse_pp": 9.649737626654801,
      "mae_pp": 5.52395678392471
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.015079778480907515,
      "rmse": 0.12279974951484028,
      "mae": 0.0655796109577371,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.022840158251400178,
      "rmse_pp": 12.279974951484029,
      "mae_pp": 6.55796109577371
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 1,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0038057658419437712,
      "rmse": 0.061690889456578364,
      "mae": 0.0305898573975453,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003700165000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.02853949538568412,
      "rmse_pp": 6.169088945657837,
      "mae_pp": 3.05898573975453
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 2,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.0035081098641180277,
      "rmse": 0.059229299034498355,
      "mae": 0.033612812972201554,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003475485,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.00938713995831586,
      "rmse_pp": 5.922929903449836,
      "mae_pp": 3.3612812972201556
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 3,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.005516525107551822,
      "rmse": 0.07427331356248906,
      "mae": 0.04058171563141325,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00551848,
      "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0003542447282908201,
      "rmse_pp": 7.4273313562489065,
      "mae_pp": 4.058171563141325
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 4,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.007180323430381961,
      "rmse": 0.08473678912008621,
      "mae": 0.04428760974260844,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00704931,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.018585284287676584,
      "rmse_pp": 8.473678912008621,
      "mae_pp": 4.428760974260844
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 5,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.007949111590922072,
      "rmse": 0.0891577904107211,
      "mae": 0.050731555967780784,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007779505,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.021801720150841364,
      "rmse_pp": 8.91577904107211,
      "mae_pp": 5.073155596778078
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 6,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.009214223224264895,
      "rmse": 0.09599074551364259,
      "mae": 0.05453337897530466,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00899435,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.0244457047218416,
      "rmse_pp": 9.599074551364259,
      "mae_pp": 5.453337897530465
    },
    {
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "horizon": 7,
      "n_points": 200,
      "mse": 0.014999461718178276,
      "rmse": 0.12247228959310867,
      "mae": 0.06498864382005679,
      "persistence_mse": 0.014743045000000001,
      "skill_vs_persistence": -0.01739238523509057,
      "rmse_pp": 12.247228959310867,
      "mae_pp": 6.498864382005679
    }
  ],
  "strata": [
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "rmse_pp": 1.3195046180195011,
      "mae_pp": 0.7991596638655464,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "rmse_pp": 11.228000159317766,
      "mae_pp": 7.320621118012424,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00020756263865546218,
      "rmse_pp": 1.4407034346299803,
      "mae_pp": 0.8763193277310924,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": -0.19214025773444665,
      "paired_mse_difference": 3.3453394957983195e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 4.882480096308189e-06,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 6.294679182047494e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.013384341614906833,
      "rmse_pp": 11.569071533579017,
      "mae_pp": 7.668695652173914,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": -0.06167647093311479,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0007775428571428575,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0006485346428571438,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0022862386027955066
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00019901008403361344,
      "rmse_pp": 1.410709339423304,
      "mae_pp": 0.8394957983193279,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": -0.14301848544813933,
      "paired_mse_difference": 2.4900840336134454e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -1.3373784466764761e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 6.2821463632307e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.013037349068322981,
      "rmse_pp": 11.418121153816411,
      "mae_pp": 7.528447204968944,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": -0.03415223157217828,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0004305503105590056,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0007224501878273433,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0016703635297603092
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00018948907563025208,
      "rmse_pp": 1.3765503101240146,
      "mae_pp": 0.8211764705882353,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": -0.08833437907234898,
      "paired_mse_difference": 1.5379831932773094e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -1.664989721254355e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 4.514631083202511e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.013181884472049689,
      "rmse_pp": 11.481238814714068,
      "mae_pp": 7.395652173913043,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": -0.04561710909611705,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0005750857142857134,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0007307757510873202,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0019892356963653233
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0001555391895244571,
      "rmse_pp": 1.2471535171118955,
      "mae_pp": 0.7848893208586761,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": 0.10665748571792089,
      "paired_mse_difference": -1.857005417302187e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -4.312316838178829e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 2.726766625106306e-07
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.012933846604526764,
      "rmse_pp": 11.372707067592467,
      "mae_pp": 7.393551428378204,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": -0.0259421803303852,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0003270478467627888,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00020195042023580013,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0008974898496717468
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "boundary <=0.05 or >=0.95",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 85,
      "events": 54,
      "points": 595,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0001562791823952097,
      "rmse_pp": 1.2501167241310296,
      "mae_pp": 0.8302995894894557,
      "persistence_mse": 0.00017410924369747898,
      "skill": 0.1024073215391691,
      "paired_mse_difference": -1.7830061302269288e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -5.3955160738888916e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 9.148641881824276e-06
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_position",
      "group": "interior",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 115,
      "events": 87,
      "points": 805,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.012846854710493186,
      "rmse_pp": 11.334396636121918,
      "mae_pp": 7.319854949555266,
      "persistence_mse": 0.012606798757763975,
      "skill": -0.019041785098804054,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00024005595272921093,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0004380197578843529,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0009502375472647496
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "rmse_pp": 6.99731666256362,
      "mae_pp": 3.833333333333333,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "rmse_pp": 0.9421611531388701,
      "mae_pp": 0.5571428571428573,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "rmse_pp": 13.41770975483279,
      "mae_pp": 9.354545454545454,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005343299270833333,
      "rmse_pp": 7.309787459860467,
      "mae_pp": 4.1233184523809525,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": -0.09130574760293664,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0004470552232142856,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00023530266091792318,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0011165153703857982
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 9.351495626822158e-05,
      "rmse_pp": 0.9670313142200803,
      "mae_pp": 0.5387463556851312,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": -0.05349065589384794,
      "paired_mse_difference": 4.748192419825044e-06,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -1.7736744476838373e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 3.041233312074827e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.018896420857142857,
      "rmse_pp": 13.746425301562168,
      "mae_pp": 9.711818181818183,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": -0.04959744897995999,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0008929273506493515,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.001961373179532887,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0038904377670693205
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005085721726190476,
      "rmse_pp": 7.131424630598346,
      "mae_pp": 3.9596726190476197,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": -0.038698577262211487,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0001894776785714286,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0003336354747693971,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0007406631289149317
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 8.85655976676385e-05,
      "rmse_pp": 0.9410929691993161,
      "mae_pp": 0.5521865889212829,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": 0.002266233126416606,
      "paired_mse_difference": -2.011661807580314e-07,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -1.295992962056304e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 1.1060670868347325e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.018611672727272724,
      "rmse_pp": 13.642460455237803,
      "mae_pp": 9.635324675324675,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": -0.03378117811189596,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0006081792207792182,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0016039371315192765,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0028888596361185954
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.004726465773809524,
      "rmse_pp": 6.874929653319752,
      "mae_pp": 3.7388392857142856,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": 0.03467520657841461,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00016977827380952343,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0006520624269347664,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0002469580412599826
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 8.458309037900876e-05,
      "rmse_pp": 0.9196906565743111,
      "mae_pp": 0.5387755102040817,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": 0.047131080237790446,
      "paired_mse_difference": -4.183673469387771e-06,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -2.300489839901477e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 1.2737910714285715e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.01952978181818182,
      "rmse_pp": 13.974899576806205,
      "mae_pp": 9.726753246753248,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": -0.08477734119424163,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0015262883116883147,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0011130363884839663,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0043473557037036975
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.004856501385392978,
      "rmse_pp": 6.9688602980637935,
      "mae_pp": 3.8270830480523723,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": 0.008116969219578829,
      "paired_mse_difference": -3.9742662226069717e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0003222416534407344,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00021781831388326836
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 9.300916238531134e-05,
      "rmse_pp": 0.9644125796841896,
      "mae_pp": 0.582317515742631,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": -0.04779264617735013,
      "paired_mse_difference": 4.242398536914805e-06,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -1.5688330990880936e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 2.412685232042838e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.018724211066828193,
      "rmse_pp": 13.683643910460471,
      "mae_pp": 9.473463193673897,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": -0.04003209488618076,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0007207175603346876,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00024840512997454045,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0019311964946265561
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "1pp < std <=5pp",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 96,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 672,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00492636350760607,
      "rmse_pp": 7.018805815525936,
      "mae_pp": 3.8386656107168515,
      "persistence_mse": 0.004896244047619048,
      "skill": -0.006151543855676067,
      "paired_mse_difference": 3.011945998702189e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0003264046500860584,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0003810264105102667
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std <=1pp",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 49,
      "events": 32,
      "points": 343,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00010437006767473937,
      "rmse_pp": 1.0216166975668486,
      "mae_pp": 0.6524078008199321,
      "persistence_mse": 8.876676384839653e-05,
      "skill": -0.17577867154187898,
      "paired_mse_difference": 1.5603303826342834e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -2.615376686087928e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 6.403527970925865e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "history_volatility",
      "group": "std >5pp",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 55,
      "events": 47,
      "points": 385,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.018411399857528443,
      "rmse_pp": 13.568861358834958,
      "mae_pp": 9.30688915339027,
      "persistence_mse": 0.018003493506493506,
      "skill": -0.02265706657920652,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0004079063510349368,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0007925460423035959,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0019228252238983363
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "rmse_pp": 7.154482999080155,
      "mae_pp": 3.7563492063492063,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "rmse_pp": 9.646110221032796,
      "mae_pp": 5.401152073732719,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "rmse_pp": 8.626813756214723,
      "mae_pp": 4.080194805194806,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "rmse_pp": 9.334366052945944,
      "mae_pp": 5.679220779220779,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005464468313492063,
      "rmse_pp": 7.392204213556375,
      "mae_pp": 4.060257936507937,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": -0.06755780473415451,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0003458056150793653,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0004229004169151151,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.001264215039894914
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008570243087557603,
      "rmse_pp": 9.257560741122688,
      "mae_pp": 5.3658986175115215,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": 0.07893834942236244,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.0007345011520737323,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0027514379667388828,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0008523020926191725
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008957655357142857,
      "rmse_pp": 9.46448908137299,
      "mae_pp": 4.479707792207792,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": -0.20363138825448956,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0015154637987012977,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 6.746220930773533e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0037225047278846126
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.010814022012987016,
      "rmse_pp": 10.39904900122459,
      "mae_pp": 6.102532467532468,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": -0.24113091440802292,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.002100983051948054,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005338390337301592,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.005629286886061305
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005462406746031746,
      "rmse_pp": 7.390809662027392,
      "mae_pp": 4.0494047619047615,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": -0.06715504964326802,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00034374404761904846,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0001812067123175327,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0008601724500086447
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008378698156682027,
      "rmse_pp": 9.153522904697418,
      "mae_pp": 5.150921658986175,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": 0.09952407708371358,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.0009260460829493087,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.002395273055555557,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00036187337800791834
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008130214285714284,
      "rmse_pp": 9.016770090067887,
      "mae_pp": 4.217532467532468,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": -0.09244894086236077,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0006880227272727246,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.000572151222826087,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0026789987375719494
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.01116859090909091,
      "rmse_pp": 10.568155425186983,
      "mae_pp": 6.3928571428571415,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": -0.2818249704875808,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.002455551948051948,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0003115028411364541,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.004822913243123332
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005194075396825397,
      "rmse_pp": 7.206993406980054,
      "mae_pp": 3.933333333333333,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": -0.014732890767755524,
      "paired_mse_difference": 7.541269841269873e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0004441343749999997,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0006210939530332678
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00964539861751152,
      "rmse_pp": 9.821099030918852,
      "mae_pp": 5.261981566820277,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": -0.036610826596312984,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00034065437788018474,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0016286919300182786,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.002649854121492346
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007490055194805196,
      "rmse_pp": 8.654510497310172,
      "mae_pp": 4.029545454545455,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": -0.00643138999954207,
      "paired_mse_difference": 4.7863636363636684e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0007884723033582914,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0011336276070184179
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.010476032467532469,
      "rmse_pp": 10.235249126197402,
      "mae_pp": 6.070779220779221,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": -0.2023396790002745,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0017629935064935078,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0006393154316271971,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.004432853552018633
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0051745759423655995,
      "rmse_pp": 7.193452538500271,
      "mae_pp": 3.83375938791563,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": -0.010923408563381365,
      "paired_mse_difference": 5.59132439529016e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00010786284316580632,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00021734995908252668
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.009624433368861056,
      "rmse_pp": 9.810419648955419,
      "mae_pp": 5.349514403126391,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": -0.034357648205748825,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0003196891292297204,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005525377255088959,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0014211557185123149
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007297521073325804,
      "rmse_pp": 8.542552940032508,
      "mae_pp": 4.052020522579957,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": 0.019439231573078475,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00014467048511575525,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.000450724686663773,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00011079760107523959
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00955626939473239,
      "rmse_pp": 9.775617317966365,
      "mae_pp": 5.95384248269096,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": -0.09677799416070565,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0008432304336934288,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -9.502459367205464e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0021476727344004417
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "100-1000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 72,
      "events": 59,
      "points": 504,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.005229518556090923,
      "rmse_pp": 7.231541022555928,
      "mae_pp": 3.842531400413781,
      "persistence_mse": 0.005118662698412698,
      "skill": -0.021657191381764918,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0001108558576782253,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -9.845008108361697e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0003314237682015842
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "1000-10000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 62,
      "events": 48,
      "points": 434,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.009542423696807306,
      "rmse_pp": 9.768532999794445,
      "mae_pp": 5.29387335946205,
      "persistence_mse": 0.009304744239631336,
      "skill": -0.025543900085252425,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00023767945717597,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0007987871299489594,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.001585089483548546
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": "<100 USD",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 44,
      "events": 35,
      "points": 308,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007410587423651825,
      "rmse_pp": 8.608476882498914,
      "mae_pp": 4.090371137989765,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007442191558441559,
      "skill": 0.004246616677568094,
      "paired_mse_difference": -3.160413478973424e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005054553984688291,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0005324333984925616
    },
    {
      "dimension": "daily_volume",
      "group": ">=10000 USD",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 22,
      "events": 15,
      "points": 154,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008929571378592247,
      "rmse_pp": 9.4496409342325,
      "mae_pp": 5.795456596248654,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008713038961038961,
      "skill": -0.024851537852812022,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00021653241755328553,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0012224062940205838,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0014990845045698398
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "rmse_pp": 8.748874146644198,
      "mae_pp": 4.608454810495627,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "rmse_pp": 9.460440532286805,
      "mae_pp": 5.327056277056278,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "persistence",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "rmse_pp": 5.863307344483403,
      "mae_pp": 2.960714285714286,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": 0.0,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 0.0,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007484781618075802,
      "rmse_pp": 8.65146323928837,
      "mae_pp": 4.67634110787172,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": 0.02214424712560059,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00016949826530612225,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.001039663500894034,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0005913333814732139
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.009786968376623375,
      "rmse_pp": 9.892910783294964,
      "mae_pp": 5.709935064935065,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": -0.09351681311529614,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0008369748701298682,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0010676864824829943,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0027220226067330186
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "luna_full",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0049275999603174605,
      "rmse_pp": 7.019686574425855,
      "mae_pp": 3.3680555555555562,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": -0.43334297933247523,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0014897626587301585,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00015986566596368982,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.003996282859190357
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007729548104956268,
      "rmse_pp": 8.791784861423913,
      "mae_pp": 4.742274052478133,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": -0.009833481754143447,
      "paired_mse_difference": 7.52682215743438e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005584434590341839,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0007111573112928057
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.008991209956709956,
      "rmse_pp": 9.482199089193369,
      "mae_pp": 5.345238095238095,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": -0.004605193309531019,
      "paired_mse_difference": 4.121645021644936e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00155197300865801,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.001318771376050419
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "terra_full",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.004591539682539682,
      "rmse_pp": 6.7760900839198435,
      "mae_pp": 3.3222222222222224,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": -0.33558958139749606,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0011537023809523803,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0003550332653061224,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.003480571825396822
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007265635568513119,
      "rmse_pp": 8.523869759981743,
      "mae_pp": 4.501166180758018,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": 0.050774771864899315,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00038864431486880513,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0012089945519480534,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00039236999223602544
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.010289257575757577,
      "rmse_pp": 10.143597771874422,
      "mae_pp": 5.586363636363637,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": -0.149638552060668,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.00133926406926407,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0004819842764238182,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0035086632050092773
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "sol_full",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0039138888888888895,
      "rmse_pp": 6.256108126374486,
      "mae_pp": 3.0690476190476192,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": -0.13847414683696257,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0004760515873015875,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005146859243697478,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0016779319292549559
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007522923853808858,
      "rmse_pp": 8.673479033126705,
      "mae_pp": 4.567792599688122,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": 0.017161121826528847,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00013135602957306623,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0004517301457584792,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00015794372417232436
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00975662298803694,
      "rmse_pp": 9.877561940092777,
      "mae_pp": 5.5399389883013574,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": -0.09012626444457172,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0008066294815434333,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": 2.9857320557422785e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0017959584799359758
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "ridge_price",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.0033174871040680745,
      "rmse_pp": 5.759763106298795,
      "mae_pp": 2.880398848309871,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": 0.03500753146859514,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00012035019751922751,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00044173089312070726,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 9.798904416976987e-05
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "1-6 hours",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 98,
      "events": 74,
      "points": 686,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.007600913799646346,
      "rmse_pp": 8.718321971369459,
      "mae_pp": 4.584317929211087,
      "persistence_mse": 0.007654279883381924,
      "skill": 0.0069720580575373114,
      "paired_mse_difference": -5.336608373557837e-05,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.00047146167182552344,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.000338896682487914
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": "<1 hour",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 66,
      "events": 49,
      "points": 462,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.00949494821776986,
      "rmse_pp": 9.744202490594015,
      "mae_pp": 5.437359526131821,
      "persistence_mse": 0.008949993506493507,
      "skill": -0.060888838732784833,
      "paired_mse_difference": 0.0005449547112763541,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0003461817553034466,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.0017827330546088297
    },
    {
      "dimension": "price_age",
      "group": ">=6 hours",
      "method": "ridge_full",
      "samples": 36,
      "events": 33,
      "points": 252,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "mse": 0.003308774652004347,
      "rmse_pp": 5.7521949306367794,
      "mae_pp": 2.89527495883535,
      "persistence_mse": 0.003437837301587302,
      "skill": 0.03754181430382553,
      "paired_mse_difference": -0.00012906264958295523,
      "paired_difference_ci_low": -0.0005167436959182926,
      "paired_difference_ci_high": 0.00019262680484763518
    }
  ],
  "bootstrap": "2000 parent-event resamples per stratum; descriptive intervals; no multiple-comparison correction",
  "notes": [
    "Groups are defined using prediction-time inputs and overlap across dimensions.",
    "Terra had one recoverable TLS reconnect; no terminal failure and all 200 outputs were valid.",
    "Historical backtest; model pretraining-memory contamination cannot be excluded."
  ]
}