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          "time": "2026-04-17T11:00:00+00:00",
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T12:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.998,
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          "usd_volume": 56615.240000000005
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T13:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.998,
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          "usd_volume": 1069.08
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T14:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T15:00:00+00:00",
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          "usd_volume": 1393748.9300000002
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T16:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T17:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T18:00:00+00:00",
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T19:00:00+00:00",
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T20:00:00+00:00",
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T21:00:00+00:00",
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        {
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-17T23:00:00+00:00",
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-18T01:00:00+00:00",
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        {
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        {
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        {
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T06:00:00+00:00",
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          "time": "2026-04-20T11:00:00+00:00",
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T12:00:00+00:00",
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        {
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T14:00:00+00:00",
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        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T15:00:00+00:00",
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          "trade_count": 1,
          "usd_volume": 999.0
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T16:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 201,
          "usd_volume": 1157257.8800000001
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T17:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 216,
          "usd_volume": 238353.6
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T18:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 137,
          "usd_volume": 28443.309999999998
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T19:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 68,
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        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T20:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 282,
          "usd_volume": 1024803.0300000001
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T21:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 35,
          "usd_volume": 47508.77
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T22:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 27,
          "usd_volume": 241168.68999999997
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-20T23:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 13,
          "usd_volume": 8144.099999999999
        },
        {
          "time": "2026-04-21T00:00:00+00:00",
          "price": 0.999,
          "trade_count": 28,
          "usd_volume": 68754.11000000002
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "market_id": "115",
      "slug": "identity-quarantine",
      "type": "事件身份隔离",
      "summary": "题目可读，但 event_id 缺失，因此不能进入严格事件级训练。",
      "question": "为什么语义可理解不能代替可追溯的事件身份？",
      "event_id": null,
      "event_title": "",
      "question_text": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
      "answer1": "Chiefs",
      "answer2": "Bucs",
      "identity_status": "quarantined",
      "has_trusted_trades": false,
      "trusted_trade_count": 0,
      "observed_points": {
        "1m": 0,
        "15m": 0,
        "1h": 0
      },
      "first_trade_hour_utc": null,
      "last_trade_hour_utc": null,
      "event": null,
      "trajectory_1h": []
    },
    {
      "market_id": "67",
      "slug": "catalog-only",
      "type": "Catalog 不等于轨迹",
      "summary": "catalog 中存在超长生命周期记录，但当前可信数据中没有成交轨迹。",
      "question": "为什么 catalog 日期不能直接当作可训练轨迹长度？",
      "event_id": "3842",
      "event_title": "Which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election?",
      "question_text": "Which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election?",
      "answer1": "Democratic",
      "answer2": "Republican",
      "identity_status": "accepted",
      "has_trusted_trades": false,
      "trusted_trade_count": 0,
      "observed_points": {
        "1m": 0,
        "15m": 0,
        "1h": 0
      },
      "first_trade_hour_utc": null,
      "last_trade_hour_utc": null,
      "event": null,
      "trajectory_1h": []
    }
  ],
  "pilot": {
    "scope": {
      "dataset_version": "polymarket-fast-research-v0",
      "status": "ready_for_pilot_research",
      "scope": "completed_relation_prefix_sample",
      "source_prefixes": [
        "00",
        "01",
        "02",
        "03"
      ],
      "source_sample_fraction": 0.015625,
      "source_file_count": 168,
      "source_relation_rows": 11925706,
      "source_relation_bytes": 2835554119,
      "daily_bar_rows": 1033390,
      "market_count": 481077,
      "event_count": 303037,
      "first_observation_utc": "2022-12-09T00:00:00+00:00",
      "last_observation_utc": "2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00",
      "track_a_eligible_market_count": 6227,
      "track_a_window_count": 14440,
      "track_a_split_counts": {
        "test": 7354,
        "train": 5877,
        "validation": 1209
      },
      "limitations": [
        "sampled transaction counts and volumes are not full-corpus totals",
        "daily bars contain observed trade days rather than a filled calendar",
        "time split is provided; event-family split remains a next-step task"
      ]
    },
    "persistence_test": {
      "sample_count": 7354,
      "mae": 0.04407613007498349,
      "rmse": 0.10022654280306253,
      "mae_by_horizon": [
        0.022858729806908267,
        0.03028663883600798,
        0.037773454582540084,
        0.043708595866194605,
        0.04951250394343141,
        0.056881285422898144,
        0.06751170206690123
      ],
      "rmse_by_horizon": [
        0.05296483053199255,
        0.06715420872837345,
        0.08317875886688347,
        0.09527215519305758,
        0.10583142992012509,
        0.12196135592785395,
        0.14467966260707613
      ]
    },
    "sample": {
      "sample_id": "ta-00000001",
      "market_id": "1003801",
      "event_id": "119296",
      "as_of_time": "2026-04-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "history_times_utc": [
        "2026-02-15T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-03-04T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-03-24T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-03-25T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-03-31T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-02T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-04T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-06T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-07T00:00:00+00:00"
      ],
      "history_p_answer1": [
        0.062000000000000055,
        0.207,
        0.151,
        0.143,
        0.129,
        0.22899999999999998,
        0.163,
        0.171,
        0.20099999999999996,
        0.18400000000000005
      ],
      "target_times_utc": [
        "2026-04-13T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-15T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-17T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-18T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-20T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-21T00:00:00+00:00",
        "2026-04-22T00:00:00+00:00"
      ],
      "target_p_answer1": [
        0.168,
        0.138,
        0.1,
        0.149,
        0.099,
        0.126,
        0.115
      ],
      "history_span_days": 51,
      "target_span_days": 9,
      "split": "test"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "只覆盖约 1.5625% 的成交，不是全量 P1B。",
      "10 个历史点和 7 个未来点是 observed days，不是固定日历 horizon。",
      "只有时间切分，尚无 event-family split。",
      "尚未加入规则小时状态、staleness、mask 和公共市场状态。"
    ]
  },
  "status": [
    {
      "name": "P1B 多尺度数据",
      "state": "complete",
      "detail": "全量验收通过"
    },
    {
      "name": "数据规模与分布",
      "state": "complete",
      "detail": "本轮已核验"
    },
    {
      "name": "正式 Track A",
      "state": "complete",
      "detail": "31,949,309 条固定日历样本"
    },
    {
      "name": "简单 baseline",
      "state": "complete",
      "detail": "26,330,043 条 cold-family 预测"
    },
    {
      "name": "P2 候选",
      "state": "pilot",
      "detail": "43,971 条 lexical/calendar seed"
    },
    {
      "name": "P3 增量验证",
      "state": "pending",
      "detail": "关系标签尚未生成"
    }
  ]
}